Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 14.386824 16.455440 18.685342 21.263926 24.159552 27.306717 30.982110
2025-02-23 11.150436 13.910862 17.119415 21.108784 25.919188 31.514737 38.497656
2025-03-02 9.681622 12.768627 16.532641 21.430462 27.602436 35.086181 44.807860
2025-03-09 8.425431 11.683966 15.831603 21.451625 28.814406 38.072068 50.524096
2025-03-16 7.379449 10.698483 15.086076 21.245307 29.590949 40.417131 55.418320
2025-03-23 6.665368 10.060182 14.703723 21.431981 30.825733 43.352054 61.167936
2025-03-30 6.228471 9.748083 14.712001 22.110453 32.717577 47.209421 68.297557
2025-04-06 5.600061 9.085853 14.153092 21.917969 33.342593 49.323687 73.098702
2025-04-13 4.823339 8.118277 13.057516 20.841177 32.595059 49.428201 75.026841
2025-04-20 4.534811 7.875203 13.014879 21.308138 34.107895 52.802801 81.756842
2025-04-27 4.262439 7.628756 12.939662 21.704964 35.516973 56.069308 88.453305
2025-05-04 3.908087 7.212009 12.558240 21.584829 36.107532 58.122509 93.410636
2025-05-11 3.545054 6.753949 12.084691 21.298914 36.443656 59.841860 98.007752
2025-05-18 3.286865 6.454157 11.848028 21.379361 37.361576 62.494456 104.159612
2025-05-25 3.084363 6.232617 11.721344 21.623733 38.541927 65.589549 111.109775
2025-06-01 2.868755 5.965709 11.492891 21.672432 39.389218 68.178142 117.351473
2025-06-08 2.633541 5.638378 11.129601 21.455030 39.762390 69.998162 122.409391
2025-06-15 2.479172 5.452319 11.005101 21.646488 40.835904 72.999391 129.500856
2025-06-22 2.403283 5.414820 11.150242 22.329993 42.796465 77.552931 139.335404
2025-06-29 2.220909 5.143003 10.832264 22.136147 43.182670 79.451565 144.777584
2025-07-06 1.949860 4.658960 10.067679 21.049543 41.890263 78.400825 145.140562
2025-07-13 1.877381 4.593097 10.118449 21.520752 43.469650 82.395589 154.334477
2025-07-20 1.801727 4.513028 10.133884 21.921133 44.931921 86.235802 163.394518